haha well hairy boot up's like that are most certainly caps.

What kind of psu do you have in there is it a TDK?  if its a TDK those caps are going to need to be changed really soon.

Aztec ones are better but still have leaky cap issues.

With these things it should power up first time every time.

if not then the caps are toast.

the only other variable is the HD… those can fool you,  will work fine for a while, and then suddenly stop...