Results of this war?

actually, it'll be more of a "warm" war.

WW IV

Interesting coverage of an ex- Clinton administration CIA director's "teach-in" speech.

In other words, those nations should now have no inhibitions any more in intervening in the war in Iraq? I think that the USA is going to have a slightly more difficult time invading Iran than it has with Iraq. If people in the middle east read this then I think the level of bloodshed, is going to increase dramatically. This also means that those nations have no choice but to start fighting the USA at every opportunity. It also means that apart from Iran, which has already probably started with it's nuclear programme (Spent nuclear fuel reprocessing plant being built now), most governments will start to procede with the development of nuclear weapons themselves, a) to be able to counter Israel, which already has them, and, b) to deter the USA from doing the same thing to them as it has in to Iraq.

Even if the USA were to succede in toppling the regimes in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the following governments would not last long, being placed there by the USA, and would only succede if they were to use the same methods that the present governments use to remain in power.

hehe. I didn't say I agreed with him or the Wolfowitz document. I just put this up as one of the more important perspectives. I scares the bejesus out of me, actually. I is also, I'm afraid, in line with what many of us have been saying in this forum for a long time.

When 9/11 scared the sh�t out of the Bush administration...enough to adopt the Wolfowitz document without much revision...it changed all the ground rules. We are certainly living in historic times. I do think this is acurately dubbed WW IV, but I think it is more a war of globalization. Terrorism is just the "method" used by "the enemy." (Note that I think it is a deplorable method for warfare...but it is a war tactic none-the-less.)

There are other ways to globalize. More inclusive ways that distribute power more evenly. The way we have chosen to go about the globalization is one of the fundamental problems (IMO).

I think it's too late for that. The US is looking to reform the region now, not ten years from now.

I also do not think that the US will intervene militarily in Iran, Syria, etc. If we do a good job in post-war Iraq, we'll let that do the talking for us.

I think there's also been a turn in the perception of the reception US troops are receiving from the Iraqis (at least in the US). The local news here showed Iraqi men, women, and children cheering and greeting American troops in Najaf yesterday, apparently glad the fedayeen had left the city. I'm not saying this is representative of everywhere in Iraq, but scenes like this are encouraging.

Thing is I think there are many in power who follow that doctrine. The problem is that any adventurism in that direction might very well start a major regional conflict. The Indian analysis shows that other governments are being encouraged to develop parity with the USA in the level of nuclear weapons and anti-missile technology. It will defintely not only be India (which is a democracy, nominally) but China as well, and probably will send Russia back on a course of rearmement.

It is bloody dangerous.

Encouraging, yes. But we are still getting mixed reports. Some of the interviews with shiite's have said that there won't be wide-spread celebration because they don't want an occupying force. This is a much different war (politically and strategically) that Gulf I.

I think it is way too soon to know how it will play out yet.

I also think that this is a long-term policy shift, and I wouldn't be suprised if goals such as transitioning Iran, syria, etc. to more pro-western ideals are on a 10-20 year "schedule."

I don't think that the Iranians, any of them- the people, the government and the military, would ever trust the USA. Iran is nominally a democracy, and although the people seem to be not very happy with the controlling judiciary, the Iranians fought an 8 year war of national defense against Iraq and from reading Iranian papers they are very proud of their defense in that war.

But you never know, perhaps they'll think that the New Iraq(tm) will be fantastic and will want to join in on the party.