Time to take a little stock

I'll admit you were for the most part right. I was quite wrong, and now it seems vey wrong. It doesn't change that I am against the war, and it doesn't change that I hate people having to die for no reason apart from being at the wrong place at the wrong time. But I now see that those people in Iraq seem genuinely happy to be free, and don't seem to mind so much that it is Americans doing it.

I don't know what the outcome of this war will be, as it's not yet over and the squabbling over the pieces hasn't really taken off yet, but I won't make any predictions any more. Time I gave up making predictions.

Very manfully said. Actually, I'm not trying to take credit for having predicted anything. I think I actually made rather few actual predictions. Some I did make seemed obvious. i did predict that there wouldn't be any carpet bombing of civilians. But that, like most of what I said was simply rejecting some of the wilder predictions made by others.

Anyway, as you say this isn't over. I just think it is important to establish something before the next round of doom-mongering starts (no, I'm not saying from you).

Time to take stock will be in about 24 months from now.

Will the Iraqis be allowed to run their own country?
Will there be a puppet regime in power or will there be genuine democracy?
Will genuine democracy be tolerated should the Iraqi people chose to elect a muslim government?
Who will benefit from the wealth created by the Iraqi oil?
What will happen with Iran, Syria and Aghanistan?
What will happen to the Kurds, what will happen to the Shi'ites?

I am still against this war. I still think we could have achieved the same results with far less bloodshed. That doesn't mean that I am not hugely relieved that it appears to be going as well as it does.

And, I'd love to see what the Iraqi minister of information would make out of these pictures

Edit: Removed stray "l"

In terms of uprising, we need to keep watch onthings AFTER the fighting stops. It will be in the "civilization" building that this will become a very real potential problem. Reports today are that even the moderate clerics throughout the muslim world are calling for jihad. This makes me nervous, and we'll have to wait and see how the post-conlict administration goes....

For the record, I thought there would be more casualties than we have seen. I'm very impressed with that part, even if I disagreed that it needed to be done.

"There is one God and Saddam is his enemy!" This was the chant of thousands of Iraqis in Baghdad this morning.

We're coming to the end of the beginning. There's still a long road ahead but the Iraq's journey from tyranny has begun.

damn no stalingrad carnage, guess i'll have to rent the dvd again. oh well it has better quality anyway, not the pixelated videophone crap.

guess i was totally wrong on that one.

i'll second theolein's post, it's seems to be a very good day today.

absolutely. I knew when I logged on this morning I'd be getting "I told you so's" from the lesser intelligent right wingers....I was sorry it was from Simey, who I normally respect.

At any rate, this does NOT change that:

1. I still think pre-emptive invasion is a wrong turn for american policy
2. I still think that Iraq is ethnically fractious, and will be a tough bronco to ride. We need only look at Basra today with looting and reprisal executions that the Brits have given up trying to control. They're on the roof of the hospital firing warning shots at looters.
3. I still think that we have incurred diplomatic damage that may never be undone
4. I still think that the overall plan is to reshape the middle east and control the oil. In fact, that was mentioned IMMEDIATELY after the celebration last night about how "SYRIA is next" and how "NOW let's stop thinking about Iraq and start thinking about the REGION" Nothing about last night changes that assessment. And I still think that's WRONG to the very core of my being.


HOWEVER, I still think our fighting men and women have done as exemplary a job as possible, and I said so BEFORE last night.

ALSO, I am happy this (seems) to be over as quickly as it has. I am happy the casaulty count was not higher

I feared this, that does not mean I predicted it. Glad my fears (thus far) are wrong.

? Dont remember this prediction so can't comment.

Well, this was predicted or feared by our own republican leaders, as well, right? Can't see this as an anti-liberal jab.

I think this is specifically directed at me. Thanks. All I said was they have 80,000 body bags on ship in the persian gulf (red sea actually). I did not know the reason and openly speculated. But thanks for remembering incorrectly.

I never saw anyone predict this at all...where did you see this? I think people universally accepted the cruel regime of Saddam was feared and hated by the civilians.

Could still happen, and probably will. You can't check this one off your list, yet, or ever.

True, this didn't happen, but historically there is legitimate reason to be alert to its possibility....or are you selectively forgetting the first gulf war and the scud missile care packages Saddam fired into Israel?

Too early to call this one a dead possibility. The idea of a Kurdish independent state is what they really don't want, and its too soon to count out the Kurds demanding that.

You can check that one off, for now. Wait until the aid cannot keep up with the need, though. Which should be in about 2 weeks.

Well, this works AGAINST your side here of wanting justification to militarily invade the entire region to control it. I'm sure we'll find sufficient justification anyways to take Syria next, then Iran. Has to be before the election.





you forgot the "nyah, nyah" at the end. Really, Simey, this is very beneath you.

I'm sorry you feel that way. I'm not demanding that anyone switch sides on their position on the war. However, many of the arguments (not pointing any fingers) have been based on the kinds of predictions I have listed. And the fact is they were wrong. Very, very, wrong.

My point in throwing it back is to prevent goalpost-shifting. This will clearly happen, and to some extent it is legitimate. You and Mastrap are right that time will tell on the long-term situation. I said as much in my original post. Nevertheless, this is, as I said in the thread title, a moment to take a little stock. And so far, the verdict on the predictions is pretty damn one-sided.

I dunno, read my post directly before this one (we cross-posted). I think your assessment of the predictions differs from mine.

Sorry about saying I was disappointed in you.
What I meant was, I expected it from spliffdaddy, finboy, Zimphire, etc. I don't normally expect you to be in the same group.

None of them were aimed at any individual here. They were based on the general tenor of one side of the debate in the last year on the board, but also in politics, and in the media (both in the US and in Europe). If you see yourself in any of them, that is purely coincidental.

I read your "break-down" post above, and I think you are taking some of this wrong. I recognized "predictions" from both sides of the aisle. There were predictions that Iraqis would rally around Saddam. There were predictions of a lot of bodies coming back home thank god it didn't happen). Doesn't matter if the administration was the one predicting (actually fearing) a Stalingrad in Baghdad.

These were just some of the horrors predicted that haven't come to pass in this conflict.

I think the real horrors are ahead of us. Mostly in terms, as you already said, of the fundamental shift in us policy, the breakdown of diplomatic ties, etc. The seeds have been sewn, and we must wait to see if they grow into weeds or flowers.

I have also been very careful not to make predictions but I will also admit that I have feared all of the above and have argued that side on a number of occasions here.

Mostly because I hate complacency and I fear that we are also victims of propoganda.

Is still think we are yet to hear the real truth.

But I am *very* glad that Saddam has left Baghdad and I hope they catch up with him. I am also glad that this time we didn't just stand on the border throwing high explosives in at will.

I *hope* that my many fears are still unfounded. And I will continue to argue againmsed complacency.

Just saw a banner held by two Iraqis: "Go home human shields! You U.S. wankers."

I don't understand. It was just monday that the Iraqi ambassador to Egypt was declaring his country's victory:

link

Well, it certainly is time for him to take stock... and update his resume.

Or his will, I suppose.

I'm kind of curious how the media elsewhere is reporting this. The BBC seems to be showing the same stuff we are seeing in the US (judging by their web site). The Guardian and The Independent also seem to be reporting the scenes in Baghdad, as is The Telegraph. But the German papers still seem to be talking about streetfighting and urban combat when the TV images I'm seeing are of people walking around freely and soldiers looking very unguarded.

My French is pretty poor, but my impression from Le Figaro is that the bad news is getting most of the play there too. It kind of contrasts with the 1989-like scenes I'm seeing on TV. But maybe I am misreading it, or seeing web sites that have yet to be updated. Most of the sites I have looked at (e.g FAZ, Spiegel, Le Figaro) are ones that I have found to be reliable in the past.

Could people with better language skills and/or access to broadcast media comment?

FWIW, CNN has also been reporting some fighting via videophone. Then they abruptly cut to commercial (not sure why, unless their reporter got hit or something).

It appears the center of Baghdad is within control, but some of the outskirts are still offering sporadic resistance, or at least snipers.

but now they're back at the statue, trying catch them actually toppling it.

Just now as I'm typing, a marine column going into the city facing stiff opposition.

So, all is not as calm as we could hope, and CNN still covering a balance.

Point taken.

I don't think those people stand much of a chance with the rope. It's a little comical watching them try. There is an M-88 recovery vehicle parked next to it. Those Iraqis need to get off it and persuade the crew to help them. An M-88 is used to recover 70 ton tanks. It has a boom and a steel cable winch. It could easily haul old Saddam down!

Edit: My mistake. They seem to have thought of that.

The big Iraqi guy with the sledge hammer cracked me up.

The whole thing in kinda sureal...It reminds me of the images of people taking cracks at the Berlin Wall.

Understandable but not a good idea:

This is a lot like that. I hope people notice the guy on the M88 with an Iraqi flag.

But I think they should have let the big dude do it. It looked like it might have taken him an hour or two - at most.

Well, it's down!

Let me guess, cheering in Iraqi culture is a sign of dismay, right?

Saddam's a hard bastard to topple in any form.

What an incredible sight that was!

Replaced with the pre gulf war Iraqi flag.

The guys in the lab suggested that maybe they should have used a French flag as a skirt for Saddam's statue before they pulled it down.

Wow, what a great sight to wake up to. Just the fact that that the soldiers can lounge around so openly seems to indicate the situation has changed dramatically.

Not a good time for 'I told you so''. I think we should all be relieved that something like this scene has actually happened. Looks like the beginning of the end to me.

LOL...

Wow, I wish I had a TV right now. This seems like it's one of those things you just have to see...

Anyone know of any news channels with a streaming feed on the net??