It's difficult to tell what the problem is there.

Does toggling the capslock key toggle the led? If so, then at least the adapter and ps2 keyboard are talking.

dougg3 also made a change to the firmware, where I had a pullup on the ADB power line. This didn't seem to affect my 9600, and obviously wouldn't affect an SE, but on his IIci it made it seem like the power key was always down.

And yeah, shift-escape is a power button press.